Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction Skills of Near-Surface Air Temperature in the CMIP5 Decadal Hindcast Experiments

Abstract This study explores the seasonal-to-interannual near-surface air temperature (TAS) prediction skills of state-of-the-art climate models that were involved in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) decadal hindcast/forecast experiments. The experiments are initialized in either November or January of each year and integrated for up to 10 years, providing a good opportunity for filling the gap between seasonal and decadal climate predictions. The long-lead multimodel ensemble (MME) prediction is evaluated for 1981–2007 in terms of the anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC) and mean-squared skill score (MSSS), which combines ACC and conditional bias, with respect to observations and reanalysis data, paying particular attention to the seasonal dependency of the global-mean and equatorial Pacific TAS predictions. The MME shows statistically significant ACCs and M…