Future Changes of East Asian Extratropical Cyclones in the CMIP5 Models

Abstract Future changes of extratropical cyclones (ETCs) over East Asia are investigated using the models participating in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). To quantify ETC frequency, intensity, and genesis changes in a warming climate, the objective tracking algorithm is applied to nine CMIP5 models. These models provide 6-hourly wind data with no missing values in the high-terrain regions. The historical simulations reasonably well capture the spatial distribution of ETC properties, except for nonnegligible biases in and downstream of the high-terrain regions. Such biases are particularly pronounced in the models with a coarse spatial resolution and smooth topography, which weaken lee cyclogenesis. The best five models, which show better performance for historical simulations than other models, are used to evaluate the possible changes of East Asian ETCs und…