Future projection of East Asian atmospheric rivers in high-resolution climate models

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) in East Asia play a critical role in extreme precipitation during the East Asian summer monsoon. While ARs are projected to increase in a warming climate, their regional changes in East Asia remain unclear. This study investigates future changes in East Asian ARs using high-resolution climate model simulations. Results show a robust increase in East Asian AR frequency and associated precipitation in the near future (2025-2050). East Asian ARs are also projected to become more intense and persistent, with a considerable increase in associated extreme precipitation. Such changes are primarily driven by thermodynamic processes, with dynamic processes playing a secondary role. This finding helps to better understand future changes in extreme precipitation in East Asia.