Forecasting of energy and emissions for the cement sector: a comprehensive review and scenario-based assessment

The cement industry is a primary driver of the environmental footprint of the built environment, representing the most carbon-intensive component of construction material supply chains.. Their energy and emissions trajectories directly shape the sustainability of buildings and urban infrastructure. However, forecasting these trajectories remains challenging due to limited data, technological transitions, and policy uncertainties. This study develops an integrated framework that combines a systematic review of forecasting methods with a comparative evaluation of the Grey Model (GM(1,1)) and the Markov-Chain Grey Model (MCGM). Using the cement sector of a rapidly developing economy as a case study, we embed forecasts within alternative scenarios, business-as-usual, efficiency improvement, and decline to assess future pathways of energy use and CO 2 emissions. Results show that MCGM signifi…